Monthly Minute with Muirfield October 2018: Fall Natural Gas Price Drop Not Yet Present
Autumn is here! Usually by now, we would have seen a dip or the beginnings of a dip in natural gas futures pricing. However, natural gas futures pricing is rising like it has done 9 out of the last 12 trading sessions.
Even though we recently received some fall weather, the warm weather is back and is causing natural gas futures to continue their upward momentum. Last week’s natural gas storage report and the current deficit in natural gas storage levels, when compared to levels from past years, are two components of the upward market movement.
Yesterday, Tuesday, October 2, 2018, the natural gas futures closed at $3.1660/MMBtu for the November 2018 prompt month. We have not seen prices this high since January 30, 2018.
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Data Drives Decisions
Below are this month’s charts. Click a thumbnail image to view the full-size PDF attachment.
Welcome to this month’s Monthly Minute with Muirfield.
Autumn is here. Even though we recently received some fall weather, the warm weather is back and is causing some concern.
As of Monday, October 1st, Natural Gas futures for the November prompt month were trading at over three dollars. Usually, by now, we would have seen a dip or the beginnings of one. Also, last Thursday, September 27th, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that Natural Gas storage rose 86 billion cubic feet for the week ending September 14. This injection into Natural Gas storage was three billion cubic feet above the projected injection, even though the five year average for the same week was 76 billion cubic feet. As of Thursday, September 27th, the U.S. Energy Information reported that Natural Gas storage stands at 2.722 trillion cubic feet.
As you can see, Natural Gas storage, when compared to last year and the five year average, are both also down. Since last Thursday, Natural Gas futures have been trading upward. The deficit of the Natural Gas storage level at this time of year is something that needs to be weighed. The typical fall drop and shoulder month pricing may or may not occur. It’s also far too early to make any definitive call on the upcoming winter weather. We will continue to keep our eyes on meteorologists’ winter weather forecasts.
If you have any questions, we will gladly help to answer them. You can contact Muirfield Energy’s corporate office at 888-370-8898 and we will have one of our local energy consultants speak to you.
Thank you for watching the Monthly Minute with Muirfield. Have a great day and we’ll see you next month.